ForeTell helps you identify robust decisions.
ForeTell's patent-pending methodology extends well-established scenario planning
techniques with powerful "what-if" simulation and analysis capabilities for true decision support.
Our approach is highly pragmatic and straightforward. We define a robust
decision as one that leads to favorable outcomes under a broad spectrum of
possible future conditions. For example, a decision to increase production
capacity is robust if it leads to sustained growth over time despite variations
in demand, competition, and prices of raw materials.
Scenarios: How You Think the World Will Evolve
You use ForeTell to define scenarios which capture the anticipated variations in
your environment. You define these variations by making assumptions about trends
such as inflation; economic forces such as differential costs of domestic vs.
foreign outsourced production, and events, such as protectionist legislation or
stock market crashes.
Alternate Decisions: How You Propose to Intervene to Influence YOUR Outcomes
You also use ForeTell to define alternate decisions. In our manufacturing
example, natural candidates would include: (1) expanding an existing plant; (2)
building a new plant; (3) outsourcing production to a domestic or foreign
producer; and (4) combining these approaches, for example, to outsource
temporarily while you are building a new plant.
Metrics: How You ASSESS Decision Outcomes
ForeTell solutions are instrumented with key performance metrics, which allow
you to assess outcomes of your decisions. In our production example, ForeTell
would define metrics such as market share, sales growth, cost per unit,
production capacity and response time, profit, and return on investment.
Test-Drive and Compare Results
You then use the ForeTell simulator to project the outcomes of each of these
decisions in each of the scenarios that depict a plausible possible future.
Finally, you use ForeTell's analytics to compare these outcomes and identify the
one that leads to the most consistently favorable results.